Will AI replace my employees? What the latest evidence says

In the US: entry-level hiring is shrinking. The Stanford Digital Economy Lab study by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen tracks millions of workers through ADP payroll data. Its August 2026 update found:

• Since late 2022, employment of 22 to 25 year olds in the most AI-exposed jobs, like software development and customer service, fell about 11%. Young workers in the least exposed jobs grew about 10%.
• The gap is widening: 15% in mid-2025, 19% by June 2026.
• Experienced workers in the same jobs are holding steady.
• Companies are mostly hiring fewer people, not cutting pay or laying people off.
• Where AI helps people do the work rather than doing it for them, employment is flat or rising.

The researchers call these early warning signs, not proof that AI is the only cause.

In Canada: jobs are still growing, but young workers are lagging. A Statistics Canada study published in January 2026 tracked November 2022 to December 2025. Jobs most exposed to AI, like coders, accountants and financial analysts, still grew: 10% for men and 5% for women. But growth was weaker for workers under 30 and those with less education. Statistics Canada notes it can't separate AI from other factors like trade tensions and population shifts.

Adoption is climbing fast. The share of Canadian businesses using AI to deliver goods or services doubled from 6% to 12% between 2023-24 and 2024-25. By March 2026, just over one in three Canadian workers had used generative AI at work in the past year.

What AI could do next. Indeed's most recent AI at Work Report (September 2025) rated almost 2,900 work skills. Only about 1% could be fully done by AI. About 40% could be done by AI with a person overseeing it, 19% could be helped by AI, and 40% barely change. Two cautions: it measures skills, not jobs, and it used AI models to rate what AI can do.

What this means for a 10 to 200 person business:

• The first impact is on hiring, not firing. The most likely change is that you don't fill the next junior admin or coordinator role.
• Plan how people will learn. If entry-level work disappears, so does the way people used to learn the job. Decide how new staff will build skills.
• Choose to assist, not just replace. Jobs held up where AI supported people. That's a choice you make in how you set up each workflow.
• Be honest with your team. Tell people what the saved time will go to before you start. Uncertainty is what makes staff resist.

Our view: AI used well should make your team's work better. When we set up a workflow, we agree upfront what the time saved will be used for.